Analysis of Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sales at Retail

"Holidays continue to be a time when consumers are willing to spend a little more to celebrate togetherness and family traditions. Potatoes, pineapples and sweet potatoes' contributions to new dollar sales show that those traditions are alive and well, despite ongoing economic hardship and concern."

- Joe Watson, IFPA’s VP of Retail, Foodservice and Wholesale

April 2025

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Consumer Sentiment Drives Home-Centric Meal Landscape

The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index showed an April reading of 52.6, which reflects a 34.2% year-over-year decline. The university attributes this to paralyzing levels of uncertainty driven by inflation, tariff talk, stock market volatility and personal finances.
Circana research finds a continued elevated level of at-home meal occasions driven by widespread consumer concern. Circana found that 74% of consumers are somewhat or very worried that there may be an economic recession in the U.S. within the next few months. Additionally, consumer support for tariffs declined sharply from a net +10 in January to -6 in March (total support minus total opposition). Consumers report being concerned about the potential impact on prices, availability and jobs.

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In response, 66% of consumers are watching their spending on groceries and other everyday items more closely and 44% of consumers have been trying to cut back on what they consider non-essentials.
In an effort to curb perishable food waste and capitalize on sales promotions, consumers continued to purchase groceries more often with the most recent 52 weeks showing a 4.4% increase in trips year-over-year and the latest four weeks reflecting a 2.3% growth. However, the average number of units per trip continues to be flat or down for most categories. The produce department is seeing similar patterns. Unchanged from last year, 99% purchased fresh produce at least once in the latest 52 weeks. Trips per buyer rose 3.2% to an average of 85 transactions. Additionally, shoppers spent more per buyer, at $772 over the past year, up 3.7%.
The April numbers are heavily impacted by the shift in Easter which fell substantially later in 2025 (April 20) than in 2024 (March 31). This shifted holiday volume from March to April (and from the first to the second quarter), but also impacted promotional levels, prices, etc.