Retail

Retail US Market Watch

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Promotions and Holiday Demand Delivered Growth

Joe Watson VP of Retail, Foodservice & Wholesale International Fresh Produce Association headshot "The holidays continued to deliver in 2025, and that’s a key lesson to carry into 2026. Overall, 2025 was a solid year for fresh produce, with dollar sales up 2.7% and volume increasing 2.0%. However, the split performance between fruit and vegetables is concerning. Fruit dollar sales rose 5.5%, while vegetables declined 0.2%. Pounds grew 3.4% for fruit, but just 0.3% for vegetables. In 2026, the challenge will be driving more balanced growth by strengthening vegetable engagement, particularly among Gen Z and Millennials.”

- Joe Watson, IFPA’s VP of Retail, Foodservice and Wholesale

December 2025

What's New

Subdued Sentiment But Sold Economic Growth

After declining from August through November, U.S. consumer sentiment rebounded modestly in December. At 52.9, the Index improved over November but remained well below December 2024 levels, as inflation and job market concerns continued to weigh on sentiment.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) remained bullish on the holiday shopping season, projecting November-December holiday spending growth of 3.7% to 4.2% versus 2024. NRF pointed to cautious consumer sentiment alongside the K-shaped economy, continued underlying economic strength and growth in activity.

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This outlook aligns with the initial estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth, which rose 4.3% year-over-year, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, following 3.8% growth in the second quarter.
Retail continued to benefit from home-centric meals, with total food and beverage dollars up 1.9% in December and units increasing 0.3%.
With Christmas shifting one day later relative to the third weekend of December, sales declined year-over-year in the week ending 12/21 but increased substantially during the actual holiday week.